TWIB Notes

9/28/23

A's @ Twins
Sonny Gray and the Twins are rolling.  The last time Minnesota won a 1 run game was over 2 weeks ago... meaning when they win, they win big; and I don't think they lose to Oakland today.  I think a parlay including the Twins -1.5 at -125 odds is a smart option.  I like Sonny Gray over 5.5. K's too...

Royals @ Tigers
Both Cole Ragans and Sawyer Gipson-Long are rising stars who have been running hot for the most part.  Barring any underclassmen mishap, I think under 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings at -150 is another good leg in a parlay.

Jorge Soler
He is facing a lefty... and I have had some luck with him against south paws throughout the year so I am liking over 0.5 hits from Jorge at -180 in a parlay as well.

Rangers @ Mariners
Both of these pitchers are tough, but I am going to play the trend on this one and go with Texas ML at +100.  Jordan Montgomery has been sharp his last 2 outings and Logan Gilbert not so much.

Playoffs: Day 1- 10/3/23

Rangers @ Rays
This is Goliath vs Goliath on the bump ... Jordan Montgomery stands at 6'6" and Tyler Glasnow a towering 6'8". I would like to see a pre-game dunk contest! Jordan has been clutch down the stretch as the Rangers were battling to make the playoffs. He has given up only 2 ER in his last 27 innings with a 22/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's flat dealing it!! On the contrary, Glasnow has been really good against teams not fighting for playoff spots; but in his last 3 games against playoff contenders he is 1-2 and has given up 14 runs in 15.1 innings ... ouch!! I will add that two of those games were on the road and more than likely in front of a chaotic crowd; but so were two of Montgomery's! Tampa Bay has handled lefties fairly decent throughout the year. At the beginning of the season the Rays absolutely murdered southpaws, but have fizzled a little yet are still hitting them at an above average clip. Their 4 best hitters vs lefties, in order, are Ramirez, Diaz, Franco, Walls. Since Wander Franco left the team, they have started to drop offensively but still have managed to win enough to make the playoffs. Wander is not going to be with them in the playoffs. The Rays do have the edge in the bullpen so I look for a short leash on Tyler Glasnow and the Rangers stretching out Jordan Montgomery as long as they can. All that said, I like hits out of Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, and Harold Ramirez mixed in with 4+ K's out of Jordan Montgomery. That is a SGP with +320.

Playoffs: Day 2 - 10/4/23

Rangers @ Rays
And this one belongs to the Rays ...
The Rangers Jordan Montgomery pitched a gem yesterday, but don't expect the same out of teammate Nathan Eovaldi this afternoon.  Eovaldi has struggled mightily since coming off the DL in early September.  In that span, he started 6 games and only pitched 20.1 total innings while giving up 26 hits and 21 runs.  If Texas wins this one, they are going to have to score 5+ runs which is looking pretty bleak versus a consistent Zach Eflin for the Rays.  Eflin hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in 8 straight starts while going 5+ innings in all of them.  I look for Eflin to go at least 5 innings today to put himself in position for the W.  I love Eflin earning a win in this one at +195 considering the following:

1. Rays should not lose 2 straight at home in playoff series
2. Eovaldi should give up 3+ runs based on his ugly month of September after returning from a forearm strain
3. Eflin should go at least 5 and not give up more than 3 based on his last 8 starts
4. Rays bullpen is solid and should be able to seal the deal after they gain an early lead.

Marlins @ Phillies
The Phillies are the only team that I think could pull off the sweep in the 1st round of the playoffs. Their pitching is steady (although Nola has struggled somewhat in his 3 outings against the Marlins), and their bats are potent. I like two offensive matchups in this one for Philly. The first, Alec Bohm who is 3-6 off Braxton Garrett this year thus far. A SGP with him getting a hit should be sure-fire. I also like Castellanos who hits southpaws about 70 points higher than righties....he is also an extra bases machine so I would take him at over 1.5 total bases.
As for the Marlins, I like De La Cruz who has gone 3-8 with a 2B & HR off Nola this year but I will just stick with the team and go 2+ runs scored. You could get +145 in a 3 leg SGP with Bohm & Castellanos 1+ hit mixed with both teams to score 2+ runs.

Well ... in order to win championship's you need unexpected guys to shine; and that's what happened yesterday! It really sucks for the grinder who just wants consistency, but maybe this could be an eye-opener to keep in mind for the remainder of the playoff stretch... just maybe this is a good year to look a little deeper and find that diamond-in-the-rough guy who pays off big! I'm going searching for Aladdin over the next few days until MLB kicks off again on Saturday. I'll let you know what I find.