Middle Tenn @ Liberty

The Vegas line is Liberty -14.5 and 56.5 for the O/U.

Using all games played, my spread using ([Points For] + [Other Team Points Allowed]) / 2 ; and adding 3 for Home Field... I get 36.5 - 19.5 in favor of Liberty. So, Liberty -17 with 56 O/U.

Using only Liberty home games and Middle Tenn away games in the same calculation, I get Liberty 36 - 15.5. So, Liberty -20.5 and 51.5 O/U.

Using YppA method with .144 denominator ... I get Liberty (7.16-4.94) and Middle Tenn (6.69-5.74) which favors Liberty by 2.22 - 0.95 = 1.27 / 0.144 = 8.82 points plus 2 for home field is 10.82 in favor of Liberty.

So, @dbott22, are you saying Vegas is off by 3.5 on this one and you would take Middle Tenn and the 14.5? Hopefully my math is right ... LOL

I get -20.5 for Liberty which is way different than what the YppA method gets at -10.82.
My value is probably inflated because Middle Tenn had 2 away games vs ranked teams at the beginning of the year and one was a blowout.

liberty 6.8-4.8. (2.0 ). mt 4.9-5.5. (0.6) liberty 2.6 x 6 +2 = 17.6 .. so liberty 17.5 fan duel 14.5 liberty so in theory take liberty but 17.5 pts for underdog is to tempting plus mt -7 t/O Ratio vs. +8 liberty . if middle Tennessee can just stay even or win turnover battle they should cover spread

I have liberty 17.5 pt favirotes vs 14.5 Vegas . but i have a hard time picking liberty because that 14.5 can be attainable if middle Tennessee can play clean football ....if ...

OK, I see where you are getting your YppA numbers now on TeamRankings. I was trying to do it manually

In my calc, I get Liberty -20.5 but that is with 3 points for Home Field. So reduce that by 1 and it's still -19.5.
I think I like Liberty covering....but am going to check the other games and see what they come out to.

I came up with taking Liberty -14.5, South Alabama -18.5, and Jacksonville St. +8.5  ... with the Jacksonville St. looking the most promising.  Is that what you got?
Both of our calculations have Jacksonville St at -4. WTH are we missing?

about right..the south Alabama spread is exactly same as Vegas so idk

the Jax spread i got i think 5.5 favirotes. vs Vegas 7.5 underdogs.You think that would be put everything you own on Jax pick but going thru numbers last year I noticed when my spread is that far off I'm. missing a injury or strength of schedule is weighted heavily in the favorites direction. Of course I love Jax and I am picking them . but just using a flat bet approach and I think jax can cover if they won the turnover battle by at least 1. that QB on western has like 3 int and 2 sacks all season he never takes negative plays and I can't see him losing game so im hoping for fumble recovery or special teams TD or at the least matching points with a team that really has a much better qb

team rankings has there home field set @ 2.2 for every game based on the advantage you should receive..team rankings had 3 until like 8 years ago it stopped to 2
5 and now is 2.2..there is websites that calculate how much each team home field should be but i feel like you can out think yourself so i like to keep it standard but of course when im making a sctualy bet I know pennsr at home at night is going to be harder than traveling to play ball st do thdts basically where common sense comes into play..Again these metrics are just to get a standard number to compare nit the end all be all but it's where i start.

I have become a better investor in football by using a simple formula and than of course certain spreads are better opportunities obviously like +3.6 or -7.5 or -4 or --6 . And looking at teams average more yards per play on offense at the moment you win with a better offense 69% to 61% on defense> Offense wins games more than better defense for the most part

i meant +7.5

my 3 picks for the record at 650 pm before start is Jax +5.5..mt +14.5 and s miss +17.5...those last 2 games i just like getting 14.5 and 17.5 those key numbers are just to hard against plus both teams have a worse turnover differential both " should hit " if they can win the turnover battle so with a jax win and taking the 2 other teans my goal is to win 1/2 of the middle Tennessee ) southern miss game and definitely einning jax st..but obviously the games will unfold in each any direction just hoping my analysus gives me as much as possible over the 52.4 percent break. even rate..currently 54.8 or something. only concern is Everytime i have a outstanding week like last week 37-18..Vegas seems to know I had a great week and they fight back the next week lol

Admin wrote:I came up with taking Liberty -14.5, South Alabama -18.5, and Jacksonville St. +8.5  ... with the Jacksonville St. looking the most promising.  Is that what you got?
Both of our calculations have Jacksonville St at -4.  WTH are we missing?  

see our calculations on Jax st was better than Vegas.  That was the only game I bet on. I still predict every game just to see my record but Jax +7 .5 i was going to go moneyline but i. backed off i feel like i was to conservative but better than being to aggressive you can lose money fast being over confident

Yes!!
I really like this method. I posted Jacksonville St. to the blog at www.toddsoddsandends.com last night and already have people asking exactly how this formula works. I told them to join the forum for details. We'll see if that sparks a few new members to register. I really appreciate all this insight. This is right up my alley!!

The best odds I have seen so far on a unique strategy was the NFL "13+ MPH rule" which I have covered the Under about 75% of the time. If I mix those games in with this strategy, it could lead to some profitable round-robin wagers.

BTW, I was messing with your YppA math on the Liberty and Middle Tenn game last night, and trying to determine an O/U. I kept coming out to Liberty winning 45-40 with an over around 85. I think I would have bet that given more time to analyze. I still bet Jax St. +8 for the easy win, and also took Jax St., So. Ala, and Liberty in a 2 of 3 round robin which paid a little to the positive. Was a good night thanks to the "dbott22" methodology.

if the good Lord has me around next football season I will focus on over/ under bets I will study that genre in the off - season I think its important to note that calculating the is just one part of the equation just using this method didn't make me more than like 2 games above .500 for a whole season so i dont beleive this method alone will make you hit 55 percent I think there has to be maybe 2-3 more statistical calculations combined and of course common sense to be profitable long term. I thought I found the " magic formula " 2: years ago by betting on the " Common opponent," strategy where my picks were based only on how teams did just based on there common opponents . it hit 53 percent the year I did the study and dropped 44 percent the next year ! not good. It's good to have a formula but i think we should always be looking at many statistical anamonies and keep evolving and probably being disciplined and staying away from parleys or just using them perodically

we need to develop a method that accounts for " Strength of Schedule" work on that i don't think as important in pros but definitely college

Agree on strength of schedule...I was just looking at the NMS @ UTEP game and the YppA says definitely take NMS -3, but UTEP has played better teams, and when I look at their Home vs Away Plays/Game it puts the game almost even. I have the O/U at around 46.5 for that one so that's not a good bet either.

I like the TeamRankings site. It has some useful stats on it. Going to mess around with those and implement a few things to these mid-week games to see if I can come up with anything else. Let you know how it goes.

i feel like ,+5 is very generous to give Florida international ..but my concerns 1) Florida international is like #132 out of #133 rated teams in nation. 2) Both played liberty ..Sam Houston lost by a field goal , Florida international lost by 32. Given that it's hard to trust a team that's rated 2nd worst in country even thou Sam Houston is only a few spots better...But on my analysus i have FI ( with my secret denominator ha). 1 pt favirotes. So I am picking fi +5 just not sure if im betting on it thou

Team rankings has there past strength of schedule ( all games to this point ) under power rankings . Which strength of schedule can be very subjective you really don't know s teams strength of schedule until the season is over its subjective based on team rankings NFL strength of schedule holds up better because it based on wins/ losses , Utep +#121 Sos vs # 132 New Mexico st so really not much difference ...under power rankings Strength of schedule ( past )

i easily have new mex st to cover easily ! but funny enough I lost betting against utep last week

72% of betting Public has money on new Mexico st so not a surprise I have them i usually dont bet on a game -3 it screams take underdog , and at home . But I will be picking NMST and Florida international as i do predict every game just to see how i do . maybe betting on NMST actually I fan of Sam Houston st as a team I like them but not enough to give FI +5.5 ..they just don't score enough

and just to note that 0.154 NFL and 0.144 is ever evolving ..i was using 0.142 just the week before but it has moved up to 0.144 . not much of a difference but worth note .

this is a called a " quick and dirty" approach to developing a point spread