Week 6 Look Ahead

Wise guys say all the value on NFL games is Sunday night/Monday morning. Those guys probably have higher gambling budgets than me.

Looking at the early lines for week 6 right away SF -4.5 at CLE jumps out at me. I know they’ve got to travel and the Browns defense is elite but the Niners have steamrolled everyone. Their offensive line should neutralize the Browns pass rush. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa will have Watson wishing he was still suspended.

When I see a line that looks wrong it makes me suspect a trap. Much like I suspected with ND/LOU I believe that’s what we’re looking at here. That being said, I wouldn’t play it but it sure looks like the wise guys will be all over Cleveland and the points. For me, SF looks like a great teaser candidate this week.

I agree, the line is too low. And, it has already gone to -5.5 as I am sure millions have taken the 49ers already.
I am thinking about bumping it to -9.5 and getting odds. With everyone healthy for San Fran, I just don't see how they won't win by double digits.

It’s at 9.5 on FanDuel right now. This almost certainly means Watson is out. If Watson is playing and the public has bet this number up 5 points and it’s only Thursday night there’s no telling how high it’ll be by kickoff.
This is a really weird situation. I feel like if the bookmakers saw this game being so close and the only factor that’s pushed the line to 9.5 is public money then my instinct is to go with Cleveland at 12:59 Sunday and get the biggest number I can.
Thoughts?

I am pretty sure Watson is out which drove the spread up.