YppA - Take Two

For today's games I see the following:

FIU @ Sam Houston St.
FIU Disadvantage = -1.1
SHS Disadvantage = -1.6
Results in Advantage FIU by 0.5 which equates to a spread of -3.4
Tack on 2.2 for homefield and get FIU -1.2
Vegas spread is FIU +5.5, so we would take FIU and the points in this one.

New Mexico St @ UTEP
New Mex St Advantage = 1.1
UTEP Disadvantage = -1
Results in Advantage NMS by 2.1 which equates to a spread of -14.5
Tack on 2.2 for homefield and get NMS -12.3
Vegas spread is NMS-3, so we would take NMS giving the points in this one.

Of course, these are starting points ... would have to check things like the weather, key injuries, or any other "obvious" external factors which could impact our result.

What you got @dbott22?

Exactly same numbers . Got FI . definitely advantage in YppA . bet +5.5 just can't trust Sam Houston to score enough

@dbott22, when you track your picks ... do you track all games regardless of the variance in your spread vs Vegas spread? Or, do you only track games where maybe your spread and the Vegas spread are at least an 'n' point difference?

OK, here's what I was able to conjure up in the last 2 hours of excruciatingly painful brain activity on the Fla. Int. @ Sam Houston St game:

Vegas spread: SHS -5.5
Vegas O/U: 41.5

YppA Spread: FIU -1

New Strategy using actual Rush and Pass % per team offensively and defensively to determine total yardage; then dividing that yardage by 14.4 to get total points per team.....which we will call the "Rush/Rec Strategy" or 'RRS'.

RRS Score: FIU 25.7 to SHS 23.9
RRS Spread (tacking on 2.2 for Homefield): SHS -0.4
RRS O/U: 49.6

Another newer strategy using average plays per team based on each team's Plays/Game offensively and defensively multiplied by the team's Pts/Play using avg pts/play per each team offensively and defensively....we'll call this 'PpP' for "Points per Play".... I know it sounds a lot like @dbott22 YppA but it is a slight variation.

PpP Score: FIU 22.6 SHS 19.9
PpP Spread (tacking on 2.2 for Homefield): FIU -0.5
PpP O/U: 42.5

All of these favor a confident bet of FIU +5.5!!
And they favor the over somewhat....but I would not bet that just yet.

Admin wrote:@dbott22, when you track your picks ... do you track all games regardless of the variance in your spread vs Vegas spread?  Or, do you only track games where maybe your spread and the Vegas spread are at least an 'n' point difference?

i pick a game Everytime like there a gun to my head. and I don't always go with the calculation like i said there has to be a guy feeling or common sense decision. And that's only threw so many games analyzing box scores and teams you can't calculate that part .

gut feeling . dumb spell check .. GUT feeling. which is only developed thru studying the box score of every game.....every one

Admin wrote:All of these favor a confident bet of FIU +5.5!!  
And they favor the over somewhat....but I would not bet that just yet.

i let u figure out over / under . that's not my specialty

im only picking new mex st -3 tonight. im not relying on the second worst team on team rankings.com to cover against Sam Houston. but ..i pick every game ..and I am taking 5.5 pts with newexico

i meant im taking +5.5 Florida international and New Mexico -3 . i pick every game my final decision is never based on yppA or t/0 . I use all that and then decide who I think will cover you cant relay on one statistical method it has to be a mixing pot of stats and then using that go with your conscious ...and number .. and by that i mean obviously +3.5 or +7.5;or +17.5 are hard numbers to turn down

so +5.5 Florida international . -3 new Mexico. . final answer lol

i like your average plays per team it's a good start

For the RRS I didn't like using the "league average" of 14.4 for Yds/Pt because I know how many yards each team accumulates and allows a game, and I know how many points they accumulate and allow a game; so why not use the average for the teams in the game instead of the league average?? When I do that, I get the following:

RRS Score: FIU 23 to SHS 17.7
RRS Spread (tacking on 2.2 for Homefield): FIU -3.1
RRS O/U: 40.7

exactly . or how about coach all time average like Alabama with saben does not average 14.4 per point. much less. i just haven't run a analysis my studies take months not just a few games and saying let's go with this

research and studies that I have come up with have 714 games of research and analysis if you want to come up with your own formula i highly suggest you do but you need to backdate the strategy and see if your formula holds true

Here is what I got for the New Mexico St @ UTEP game:

Vegas spread: NMS -3
Vegas O/U: 47.5

YppA Spread: NMS -12.4

RRS Score: NMS 29.3 to UTEP 21.9
RRS Spread (tacking on 2.2 for Homefield): NMS -5.2
RRS O/U: 51.2

PpP Score: NMS 26.8 to UTEP 19.8
PpP Spread (tacking on 2.2 for Homefield): NMS -4.8
PpP O/U: 46.6

Now, I will sit back and check the box score in the morning!
I went with FIU +3.5 and NMS -3

ahh the smell of victory  2-0 good pix I bet on both won $40 total
 I have James madison -2 , Vegas has jm -3.5 im going with Marshall

and I do like using average per team YPPA  like you suggested  that does make sense  i like it .

i had new Mexico 10 pt favirotes I had no problem betting on them even though I dont like a spread of -3 . won easily

Well ... I'll have to say that 4-1 over the last two days is a very strong start to this new methodology for me.  I started with $40 to put towards it, and am at $120 now.  Tripled up in 2 days!!  I bet all of them straight up for around $10 and added in a $10 teased parlay with FIU over 37 and FIU +7.5; and the round robin from yesterday.  And another parlay with FIU +5.5 and NMS -3.  I know you said no parlays, but my gut was feeling pretty good about last night with all the different calculations I did leaning in favor of FIU and NMS.  FIU put a little scare into me with OT, and NMS started slow; but great results!!  I will start crunching numbers for the NCAAF and NFL games in a few hours....

I'm doing parley today lol. maybe just not to many parleys sometimes just to appatizing . my parley is $20 to win $120 Jax moneyline , both marshall +3.5 and rice +3.5

I'm up like $80 this week why not just $20 on +600 odda

How did you come up with Jax ML?
On your YppA I am coming out to New Orleans - 6.1; and Vegas has -1.

I come up with the following for Rice @ Tulsa:

Vegas spread: TULSA -3
Vegas O/U: 58

YppA Spread: RICE -6.1

RRS Spread: RICE -0.8
RRS O/U: 51.4

PpP Spread: TULSA -0.5
PpP O/U: 59.3