Week 9 NCAA PICKS

NMST @ LT .(-2.5)  Tuesday night .    I have NMST in this one actually 6.6 favirotes - 2 home field .  NM 4 1 /2 point favirotes based on 1) yppA - home field .   No recent head to head matchups. Strength of schedule allmost equal. Common opponents advantage New Mexico st 2-0 vs same opponent average victory 10 pts to 5 Lt .  NMST averages 7.0 per play and 6.3 per rush both better than LT . my play would be money line to all the way to -2.5 NMST if both teams play head up NMST is the better team and should win by 3 with no special teams or turnover differential.

Thanks for the extra detail to back the YppA calc. I'm in on New Mex St as well

My noon calcs are below:

Fla St @ Wake
Vegas Spread: Fla St -21
Vegas O/U: 52.5
SoS: Fla St +14.6

YppA Spread: Fla St -17.9

RRS Spread: Fla St -8.5
RRS O/U: 50.1

PpP Spread: Fla St -10.6
PpP O/U: 52.2

Houston @ Kansas St
Vegas Spread: Kan St -17.5
Vegas O/U: 60.5
SoS: Kan St +5

YppA Spread: Kan St -7.1

RRS Spread: Kan St -10.8
RRS O/U: 61

PpP Spread: Kan St -10.5
PpP O/U: 58.3

Oklahoma @ Kansas
Vegas Spread: Okla -8.5
Vegas O/U: 66
SoS: Okla +7.6

YppA Spread: Okla -2

RRS Spread: Okla -8.9
RRS O/U: 59.7

PpP Spread: Okla -8.2
PpP O/U:61.4

West Virginia @ UCF
Vegas Spread: UCF -6.5
Vegas O/U: 59.5
SoS: EVEN

YppA Spread: UCF -15.4

RRS Spread: UCF -5.5
RRS O/U: 57.1

PpP Spread: UCF -4.3
PpP O/U: 57.5

South Carolina @ Texas A&M
Vegas Spread: Tex A&M -17
Vegas O/U: 51.5
SoS: Tex A&M +2.5

YppA Spread: Tex A&M -19.6

RRS Spread: Tex A&M -10.9
RRS O/U: 54.9

PpP Spread: Tex A&M -13.6
PpP O/U: 54.4

Indiana @ Penn St
Vegas Spread: Penn St -31
Vegas O/U: 45.5
SoS: Penn St +11.5

YppA Spread:Penn St -25.8

RRS Spread: Penn St -20.3
RRS O/U: 44.5

PpP Spread: Penn St -24.5
PpP O/U: 46.5

I was messing around with the YppA formula, and applying it with the Yearly Avg and the Home/Away Avg to see if there was a big gap; and then I took only the two favorites at 3:30PM who were home teams and passed the calc for both Yearly and Home. The teams were Appalachian St. and Miami Fla.