WEEK 10 Picks

There are 9 mid week games today through Friday.  Of those 9, the following 5 passed all 3 calculations.

Akron -4.5
TCU +3
South Alabama +5.5
Boston College +2.5
Colorado St +7

However, Syracuse has a +23.7 Home Advantage rating (#2 in the country) so I eliminated the Boston College @ Syracuse game.
I also eliminated the Colorado St @ Wyoming game because they are calling for 20-30MPH winds in Laramie, WY on Friday night.

The leaves Akron, TCU, and South Alabama as the picks of the mid-week.  I am going to put $20 on each and see how it works out.

I am really liking Peny Boone over 111.5 yards tonight too.  Thinking about a decent size wager on that one.
He has run for 113+ in 5 of his last 6 ... Toledo runs the ball 62% of their plays ... and Buffalo defense allows 5.4 yards per rush ... and Toledo is supposed to blow then out so might run more to burn the clock.  According to the RRS, Toledo should run for 220 yards tonight; and I'd have to assume Peny will get more than half of those.... only thing that might mess it up would be if QB Finn decides to take all the carries.

Here are a few more that qualified this week to go with those above:
Notre Dame -3
Nebraska -3
Texas A&M +3

Well....I was able to get through all 50+ games this week by sifting out the games where there was bad weather, key injuries, or Home Advantage/Strength of Schedule impacts prior to crunching the numbers. It was tedious, but hopefully pays off! Below are the teams that have qualified based on the current Vegas spread.

TCU +3
South Alabama +5.5
Notre Dame -3
Nebraska -3
Texas A&M +3
Arizona St +11
Temple +6.5
Georgia Tech +2
Georgia St +6
Maryland +8
Missouri +14.5
New Mexico St -3
Appalachian St -3.5
New Mexico +10

14 games surpasses our current test deck of 10 games where this strategy is 8-1-1.
Based on that winning percentage, I am hoping to go at least 11-3 in these games!!

Admin wrote:Well....I was able to get through all 50+ games this week by sifting out the games where there was bad weather, key injuries, or Home Advantage/Strength of Schedule impacts prior to crunching the numbers.  It was tedious, but hopefully pays off!  Below are the teams that have qualified based on the current Vegas spread.

TCU +3
South Alabama +5.5
Notre Dame -3
Nebraska -3
Texas A&M +3
Arizona St +11
Temple +6.5
Georgia Tech +2
Georgia St +6
Maryland +8
Missouri +14.5
New Mexico St -3
Appalachian St -3.5
New Mexico +10

Scratch South Alabama from the UAT results because their QB did not play and I missed it on the key injury report.

Anybody else feeling any of these "qualifiers"?
Thinking about teasing them and building a solid 8-10 team parlay???

There were 14 games that I originally qualified based on analytics.
I should not have qualified South Alabama as they were missing their QB; so that makes it 13 pre-game qualifiers.

I found that during the game, Arizona St. lost some key players so I disqualified that game.
That put it down to 12, and two of those had either over a 9.5 Home Advantage or 9.0 Strength of Schedule difference....so I removed those as part of "fine tuning" the methodology.
Ended up with 10 games and a not so impressive record of 5-4-1.
That makes the overall record across 20 games during the past 3 weeks...at 13-5-2 ... which isn't too bad still since we killed it the following weeks.

I think I am going to give it one more case study next week and see if we can bounce back...