Opening Week!

Starting a forum for any NBA strategies that some may want to share.
I had some ideas from last season, but will have to refresh my memory on what they were once the season kicks off.

Based on last season's tendencies for Denver at home, I would take Denver and the Over in that one.
Based on last season's tendencies for Warriors at home and Suns games in general, I would take Warriors and the under.

For player props I am liking Kevin Looney over 9.5 rebounds with Draymond Green not playing.
Also like over 7.5 assists out of Chris Paul for similar reasons. Draymond dishes a lot and those assists have to go somewhere.

I could also see Booker and Durant shooting 20+ times each with Bradley Beal not likely to play...

Well, it was a solid first night of NBA action. Looney covered boards, Paul covered dishes, Durant and Booker shot 22 & 21 times respectively, Nuggets covered spread, and Warriors went under. Also had Nurkic over on combo Pts-Reb-Asst.
Only thing that missed was over in Nuggets and Warriors loss.

Day two analysis coming up next

Not a lot of time to analyze today (damn work getting in the way)...
But, here is what I am betting: Parlay Jordan Poole 20+ pts, Anthony Edwards 20+ pts, and Evan Mobley 10+ rebounds.

Thought of the day:

Phoenix is missing two of their top 3 scorers (Beal and Booker). How are their points going to be spread out? Are they all going to Durant, or will Grayson Allen or Nurkic eat them up?

Or maybe even Okogie?? He put up 17 last game out of nowhere!

Friday Brain Dump:

Denver @ Memphis:
Grizzlies are on a back-to-back with Home opener tonight, and then hit the road tomorrow.  I would bet they play their starters in the home opener, and rest them somewhat tomorrow on the road.  That said, Bane and Tillman took the majority of their shots so expect the same tonight.  Memphis allowed McCollum to have a big day so I'd put some stock in Jamal Murray as well.  Denver allowed backup Taurean Prince to have a decent day in the PF spot for the Lakers, so maybe also consider Jaren Jackson Jr.  

Detroit @ Charlotte
Cade Cunningham shot a shit ton for Detroit, but only made half of them against a tough Miami defense.  If he shoots 27 times again tonight, then he might come away with 40+ (although Ball did a good job on Trey Young holding him to 4-19 from the floor).  The Pistons defense did hold down Tyler Herro so I wouldn't lean on Ball and Rozier too much for Charlotte.  I kinda like PJ Washington and Mark Williams for the Hornets.  *** NOTE: Detroit is on front leg of back-to-back where tonight is on road and tomorrow is home opener.  Starters will probably not play their full 30+ minutes so look for a dark horse off the bench.  Also makes me want to go with Charlotte -4.5!!

NY Knicks @ Atlanta
Stay away from this one.  Knicks are on back-to-back road games and not sure who is going to play how much.  Atlanta top two scorers (Young and Murray) were atrocious from the floor last game (7-33) and may take some time to find their groove.

Miami @ Boston
Heat on back to back road games.  Hard to rely on their starters playing 30+ minutes.  Boston is playing home opener so should cruise, but if Miami plays starters entire game they could keep the scoring low.

OKC @ Cleveland
Cavs on back to back home games but tonight is home opener so I would think they would bring their starters full tilt to play for the win.  Strus looked really good in game 1 and I think he has the talent to have a big season for Cleveland.  Mitchell will always get his 20+ shots off.  OKC plays pretty good defense and have young fresh legs.  Kinda like the under in this one.  

Toronto @ Chicago
Both these teams are on back to backs.  Bulls are looking to avenge their loss during their home opener tonight before going on the road, and the Raptors will head home tomorrow.  Bulls shot horribly in their first game, but so did the Raptors.  If the Bulls shoot a little better tonight against Toronto second stringers in the 2nd half, then they should be able to cover the -2.5.

Houston @ San Antonio
Wow!  Houston sucked their first game of the year.  Their shooting pct wasn't bad, but they just didn't get that many shots off.  Magic whipped them by 30 and Orlando is just an average team.  Good for the Rockets that they play the Spurs who surrendered 126 to Dallas in their first game.  Put that crap defense together with the Rockets crap offense, and Houston might (just maybe) hit the century mark tonight.  Sleeper in this one is Tre Jones for San Antonio.  He is ball handler off the bench and had a nice stat line last game, and Cole Anthony came off the bench for Orlando to rip right through the Rockets second-team defense.

Brooklyn @ Dallas
No back to backs in this one. Claxton won't be playing for the Nets and Cameron Johnson is questionable. Cam Thomas came up big last game off the bench to lead all scorers... just not sure if he will do that consistently so it's a tough bet on anyone on Brooklyn. If anything, I might take Simmons over in Rebounds since Claxton is out. Dallas gave up a bunch to San Antonio but pulled out the win 126-119. The Mavs are playing home opener and I think you can count on 20+ shots out of Luca and Kyrie again. I'm not really liking this one.

LA Clippers @ Utah
Utah is at home tonight, then away tomorrow. Clippers should bring all their guns into Utah looking to give them two straight home losses to start the season. Clippers put up 123 on Portland last game, and Utah gave up 130 to Sacramento. I would say that Kawhi and PG are every bit as good of scorers as Sabonis and Barnes so look for LA to break 115 on the road again tonight. I like the Clippers in this one even though Utah has a good track record at home.

Orlando @ Portland
Orlando had a strong finish to the season last year, and started off this year with most of the same team. They crushed Houston by 30 in their home opener, but now are headed across the country to Oregon to play a Trail Blazers team that plays very well at home. Anfernee Simons has an injured shooting hand but still might play. I would look for Malcolm Brogdon to get 20+ off the bench in this one. Also Deandre Ayton might have to shoot more than the 4 times he did last game to win this one. Orlando plays well together and spread their shots out amongst the group so it is hard to bet player props without any consistency.

Golden State @ Sacramento
Big time matchup here. Two playoff contenders. Draymond is still out for the Warriors so look for their top 4 to take all the shots again (Curry, Thompson, Paul, Wiggins). Sacramento started the way they ended last year ... as offensive powerhouses! 19 3 pointers spread out across their squad last game, and I would say they will be good for 15 more tonight at home although I don't think it will be Barnes and Murray going 9-16 again. Fox and Huerter should add to the mix tonight from beyond the arc, and Monk should be good for his normal 2+.

I’m loving the celtics, heat game tonight.
Bam 10+ P
Brown 10+ P
Herro 15+ P
Butler 15+ P
Tatum 20+p
aswell as Tatum 8+ Rebounds.

I would be with that if you were going with all Boston props, but since you added Heat props in there, I can only wish you luck! The Heat have 3 guys over 30 years old in their rotation and are in back to back games. You better hope they go for the win on the road in Boston and don’t keep them fresh for the T’Wolves tomorrow.

What odds does that get you for the SGP?

Damn. You almost had it! One more for Jordan Jr