Mid Week games

Tuesday's games:
New Mexico St. @ La Tech: I'm thinking New Mexico St. money line. LA Tech has a decent 'Home Advantage' rating, but calcs say New Mex St by 2.5+.
Liberty @ WKU: Similar to the other game, the calcs say Liberty - 7.5+ but Hilltoppers have a fairly 'Home Advantage'. I am thinking Liberty -6.5

home advantage rating is something I need to look into I started a different forum looks like we both thinking same. My question to you is why not take moneyline but take NMST -2.5 alternate spread @ +128 . only 6 percent of games are decided by less than 3 points i mean moneyline +116 i think so maybe not even worth it but just something to consider

I'm with you on that -2.5. And I do generally consider the 2.5, 6.5, 9.5 rule when betting to get the increased odds, just was using the lowest common denominator of my 3 calcs and a few had it pretty close to even. I also use a -3.5 in hoops because at end of game usually free throws put it away by at least 4-6 pts. And, in baseball I do a lot of -1.5 run spreads to increase odds because I feel like most teams win by at least 2 especially with the goofy extra inning rule now where a guy starts on 2nd base so a bomb makes it a walk off two run win instead of 1 run win.

i never knew about the 2.5, 6.5 , 9.5; rule never thought about it but sounds real legit . im 234-204-2 picking games 54.7 % but I've lost so much on parleys that's why I was like maybe we should stay away if u got it figured out let me know but I've lost all my profits on parleys i haven't hit

Nah, singles is the way to go! I need to stop looking at all the Profit Boost and Promo bets where odds are boosted because they know it's going to lose! 100% of 0 = $0 ... LOL

Did you ever try to do the "ladder" bets starting at $20 and doubling until you hit $10,000?
Need to win a +100 bet 9 straight times. Seems doable, but I haven't gotten too far on it.

I also see gambling sites and casino employees always saying "don't chase your bets" ... but sometimes I wonder if that is exactly what we should do if we are around 50% accurate.  Then whenever you win two in a row, you win money.  I mean I can see not chasing if it's a game of luck like roulette or something ... but with sports betting, you supposedly have a 50/50 shot just playing the spread.  Why not bet $20 and if lose, then bet $20 to make it back, and if lose that then bet $40, then $80 to get even.  If odds are 50/50 then you should win at least one of every 4.  You would in theory need to have startup cash of $160 to secure your $20, and would be betting $160 that you will not lose 4 straight bets before you win two in a row 8 times..... seems doable to me! And every time you win two in a row, you reduce your risk of $160 by $20....so win two in a row, then make $20 and only lose $140, then $120, $100, etc.

I'm taking NMST +3 -110 odds . FanDuel changed to 2.5 to 3  I also taking liberty but not betting I really like that wky QB

i chased losses once  I had a bad week was down 250, so my next bet I tryed to make it up on a 3 team NFL parley giving each under dog +14.5 points thought for sure each team would cover but nope so yes they say dont chase your losses prob. true i just know i thought for sure Denver would cover +14.5 ( original spread +6.5) to Miami and they ended up losing 70-20 !! so much for a sure thing!  ha

those promo bets seem good I just know when I won one it says i couldn't withdraw the money so i had to place another bet just to try to get that money and ended up losing but those are just my experiences if you can find a way to get paid on these parleys and profit boost.  and " Ladder" bets let me know lol

Baseball if you do -1.5 @ home you need like +160 odds I think I calculated 42 % percent  using implied probility calculator you need like +160 to make it worth it my numbers might be off a bit I have to check my sheets but something like that . when you are home and getting -1.5 you are essentially getting one less inning to bat ( 9Th inning ) if you are up .

I was way off , i did a study of 806 baseball games . home teams -1.5 went (190-233)  45 percent . so if you are given that to make it worth it your baseline should be +122

Away 1.5  should be  at least +133   43 percent win . (164-219).

That's good stuff from the baseball case study. I will keep the +122 and +133 in mind when next season kicks off.
I haven't been close on playoff games so I am steering clear of MLB until next April.

Solid wins out of New Mext St and Liberty last night.
That puts the mid-week games at 5-1 since I started tracking the YppA.
Tonight the YppA is very close to the spread for both games. FIU and UTEP by a variance of 0.8 or less.

im not betting tonight Games but i do like Georgia st Thursday on the spread .

those +122 and +133 numbers evolve over the season,  and usually the hard part is they give you s#it teams at numbers above those like Colorado or whoever sucked its a balancing ac for suret

I am on Ga St tomorrow as well. All 4 calcs had them favorites, but they are getting a point.
Are you going to do -2.5, ML, or take the +1.5

the study I started 2 days after all star break till Sept 1. once college football started it was too hard to track both i have humdrrads of mlb pages handwritten from all star to Sept 1 probably why it's so much work lol

prob -2 1/2 .. I ended up taking +3 NMST @ -110 when fan duel changed the odds I would have gone -2 1/2 that would have been perfect it ended up 3 but I will wait to see if odds change

I really need to figure out how to incorporate strength of schedule into my point spread i dont even account for it all

I might end up betting tonight Games i get bored and around 6-630.stsrt itching for action ..tonight games going to have to be more gut feelings or looking at different metrics its too close yppA

As for Strength of Schedule; I kind of feel like it is a "gut" call. A team might step up to the challenge and beat a high powered team one week, then lay down to a rum-dumb team the next week. I feel like it balances out somewhat in that regard.
I like looking at Home Advantage to see how teams fair at home compared to away because that could cause you to add maybe 3.2 or 4.2 for home field instead of 2.2. Although last night WKU had a pretty high Home Advantage rating and it did not matter one bit against Liberty.

The only thing I see on the Jax St @ FIU game is that there will be 16MPH winds in Miami, FL tonight so maybe they run more than usual. My Rush/Rec Calc (RRS) has FIU running for 140 yards and Lawrence and Owens run for 87% of the teams rushing yards according to TeamRankings. That means they should run for around 120 yards (or about 60 yds each). The current O/U rushing for them is around 32-36 yds. Could get either of them for over 40+ at +100 or better.

Based on last 3 games, I like Owens over 40+ rush yds at +135.