HRH strategy (continued)

Spread Pockets:

30.5+ has a record 2-13 ... 13%
26-29 has a record 16-4 ... 80%
20.5-21 has a record 2-7 ... 22%
17.5-18 has a record 7-2 ... 78%
15 has a record 0-4 ... 0%
12.5 has a record 10-4 ... 71%
12 has a record 2-7 ... 22%
10.5 has a record 5-2 ... 71%
8.5 has a record 6-2 ... 75%
7.5 has a record 8-2 ... 80%
4 has a record 3-0 ... 100%


Rank Variance pockets:

39-46 has a record 2-10 ... 17%
64-76 has a record 13-3 ... 81%
103-109 has a record 0-9 ... 0%
138-149 has a record 12-2 ... 86%
165-169 has a record 9-1 ... 90%
177-196 has a record 13-3 ... 81%
210-218 has a record 0-9 ... 0%
262-275 has a record 8-1 ... 89%
305+ has a record 2-10 ... 17%

Rank Variance pocket teams for the day are as follows:

Georgia +9.5
Rob Morris +7
Missouri St -11.5
Temple -4
Columbia -7.5
UTEP -13.5
Northern Arizona +13
Binghamton +10
High Point -13
Tulane -14
Cornell -11.5
Seton Hall -15
Dartmouth +13.5
Iowa -24.5

Now have 374 games in the study ... record for higher ranked home team vs the opening Vegas spread is 188-181-5 ... 51%.

That is not a great record, but there are many "pockets" where ranges of spreads are successful at over 70%....  That is what the HRH strategy focuses on.  We want the "bad" pockets to keep losing vs the spread, and the "hot" pockets to keep winning!

Pocket Teams vs Spread are as follows:

New Orleans +12 (78%)
Kansas City -8.5 (75%)
Florida Atlantic -7.5 (79%)
North Alabama -7.5 (79%)

Pocket Teams based on Rank Variance are as follows:

SE Missouri +8.5 (79%)
Liberty +7.5 (79%)
Hofstra -6 (82%)
North Alabama -7.5 (81%)
Texas -19 (81%)
Minnesota -12 (81%)
UCLA -19.5 (81%)
Ark Pine Bluff +29 (83%)

There are 3 conflicting pockets so need to remove those:

New Orleans/Minnesota
SE Missouri/Kansas City
Liberty/Florida Atlantic

There is one game that is in both pockets: North Alabama -7.5

Only game vs the spread is North Alabama tonight.

If you want to take a chance on Rank Variance, then would be

... Hofstra -6
... Texas -19
... UCLA -19.5
... Ark Pine Bluff +29

Higher Ranked Home teams went 9-3-1 overall regardless of the pocket yesterday!
Today there are only a handful of qualifying games, and nothing that really falls into a solid "pocket".

The +15 games are 5-0 so SE Louisiana is a consideration.
The +14.5 games are 8-4 and have won 5 straight so Mercer is a 'maybe' as well
The +9 games were 1-5 to start, but are 5-0-1 since 11/24... George Washington and Southern Mississippi would be a "trendy" pick.

Troy and SE Louisiana are looking good in Rank Variance pocket.... and Georgia (which conflicts with +14.5 Mercer above)
Norfolk St could be considered also.

Big Day today ... 40+ games qualify!!

31.5+ has a record 1-12 (8%) ... NW State +33.5
17-18 has a record 12-4 (75%) ... Kentucky -18, Rice -18, Kansas St -17, Vandy -17, New Mexico -17
14.5-15 has a record 4-15 (21%) ... Notre Dame +14.5, Rhode Island +14.5
12.5 has a record 10-4 (71%) ... McNeese St -12.5
8.5 has a record 7-2 (78%) ... Middle Tenn, Idaho St, Nevada
7.5 has a record 13-3 (81%) ... Princeton, Ohio