Strategy Discussion

Opening up this post for some best practices on betting college hoops.

Tonight I am going to start analyzing how higher ranked home teams fare against the Vegas spread.  There are 22 games that qualify where both teams are members of the 362 ranked programs by TeamRankings.com.  And, there are another 12 games where the home team is on the TeamRanking's list, but the away team is not....meaning they are probably not an NCAA D-1 basketball program.

Well, that went alright....there were 24 games with spreads and the higher ranked home team went 15-9 against the spread. Not too bad at 63%. Going to check it out again today.

Yesterday there were 41 games where the higher ranked team was playing at home. The home team went 24-16-1 against the spread which is about 60%. The higher ranked teams started off hot during the 7PM games and then tumbled somewhat in the late games. 60% is still pretty good. And overall the record is 39-25-1 which is 60.7%.

It's worth trying again tonight and see if there are any games I can disqualify due to variances or something like that.
Stay tuned.

Wednesday, the strategy went 12-10 (only 55%) ... and overall 51-35-1 which is 59%.
I'm going to take out the games from 11/14 because I did not write them down in the spreadsheet. So our total is now
36-26-1 which is 58%.

I'm going to keep tracking and analyzing. One thing I noticed is that spreads at 30+ in favor of higher ranked home team are 0-5-1

Case study is up to 123 games where home team has a higher TeamRanking than away team.

The home team record against the spread is 64-58-1 ... 52%

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One notable observation is that there were 11 games where the higher ranked home team gave up 30+ points, and their record in those games is 0-10-1 ... which means the away team getting 30+ covers the spread 95% of the time!!
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Updated record is 77-71-1 through 149 games... 52%.

BYU defeated the 30+ Strategy last night with a 43 point win over Morgan St. 1-10-1 still is terrible for the highly favored home teams. No big spreads today qualify for the 30+.

Below are some decent pockets for home teams covering based on point spread ranges ..
25-29 has a record 5-1 (83%)
17-19 has a record 10-2 (83%)
10-10.5 has a record 7-2 (78%)
8.5 has a record 4-1 (80%)
7.5 has a record 4-1 (80%)

Here are some records for the higher ranked home team based on ranges of their difference in ranking.

3-12 has a record 0-5 (0%)
13-18 has a record 7-2 (78%)
70-81 has a record 6-2 (75%)
145-149 has a record 5-1 (83%)
178-195 has a record 8-0 (100%)
200-216 has a record 1-7 (13%)
219-236 has a record 8-1 (89%)
287+ has a record 2-9 (18%)

90-81-1 ... 53%

The "pocket" or "range" qualifiers from yesterday were 7-2 (78%) and would have paid +500 if bet individually.

Today's "pocket" bet is Santa Clara falling in the following pocket range:

Range 25-29 is 8-1 (89%)

Higher Home Rank (HHR) strategy went 9-4 yesterday bringing the total to 99-85-1 or 54%.

All 4 teams in the "good pockets" covered for a nice parlay and round robin payout... Santa Clara, East Carolina, Oklahoma St., and Texas A&M-Commerce.

The HRH "pockets" for the day are as follows:

30+ has a record 1-10-1 .... Alabama A&M +32.5
25-29 has a record 9-1 ... TCU -27.5 & Duke -26.5
17.5-19 has a record 9-2 ... Minnesota -17.5
12.5 has a record 7-2 ... no games
10-10.5 has a record 7-2 ... Oral Roberts -10
7.5 has a record 5-1 ... East Carolina -7.5

I also sorted by difference in the rank between teams to see if there were "pockets" based on rank variance instead of just using the Vegas spread.

Below are the HRH Rank Variance pockets:
13-18 has a record 8-2 ... Detroit 17
70-81 has a record 9-2 ... Cal State Northridge 79
104-112 has a record 0-5 ... TX Southern 106 & Prairie View 109
176-196 has a record 12-1 ... Maryland 182
204-216 has a record 0-7 ... no games
219-230 has a record 7-0 ... no games
305-356 has a record 1-7 ... Alabama A&M 332

The TX Southern @ Oral Roberts has "contradicting pockets" will looking at it between spread vs rank variance....so I will throw that game out.

Which leaves the following teams for tonight according to spread:

Alabama A&M
TCU
Duke
Minnesota
East Carolina

And the following according to rank variance:

Detroit
Cal State Northridge
Prairie View
Maryland
Alabama A&M

I have been doing well against the spread with this methodology so I am going to bet more on those games than the Rank Variance.

Latest HRH record is 106-94-2 ... 53%

Today's pocket pick based on spread range is Kansas St -27
Today's pocket pick based on rank variance range is Seattle -16

Not too many other games in solid pockets ... and the pockets are starting to even out somewhat. I will add more info on the "hot pockets" tomorrow after I register the results of today's games.

There were 2 Rank Variance picks which were favorable around 70% ... East Tennessee +6.5 and Maine +9.5

HRH went 13-10 yesterday, bringing career total to 119-104-2 ... 53%

Pocket picks(Seattle, Kansas St, East Tenn, and Maine) were 4-0!!

*** No games qualify today ***

Below are the hot pockets vs the Vegas spread after 9 days and 225 games:

30+ has a record 1-11-1 ... 12%
25-29 has a record 11-2 ... 85%
17.5-19 has a record 10-2 ... 83%
12.5 has a record 7-2 ... 78%
10.5 has a record 5-1 ... 83%
8.5-9 has a record 10-3 ... 77% (9 is 5-1)
4.5-5.5 has record 6-14 ... 30%

Below are the hot pockets vs the Rank Variance after 9 days and 225 games:

12-15 has a record 5-1 ... 83%
39-55 has a record 2-9 ... 22%
70-76 has a record 7-1 ... 88%
103-112 has a record 1-7 ... 12%
131-137 has a record 0-6 ... 0%
142-152 has a record 9-2 ... 78%
169-196 has a record 18-2 ... 90%
204-217 has a record 0-8 ... 0%
219-236 has a record 9-1 ... 90%
243-274 has a record 9-3 ... 75%
305+ has a record 1-8 ... 11%

Today's hot pocket vs Vegas Spread

30+ has a record 1-11-1 ... 12% ------- South Indiana +37 & Manhattan +35
25-29 has a record 11-2 ... 85% ------- Okla St -26.5, Houston -26, Illinois -26, Miss St -25.5
17.5-19 has a record 10-2 ... 83% ----- Providence -18.5 & Kentucky -18
12.5 has a record 7-2 ... 78%
10.5 has a record 5-1 ... 83%
8.5-9 has a record 10-3 ... 77% (9 is 5-1) ------- Georgia -9
4.5-5.5 has record 6-14 ... 30%

Below are hot pockets for today based on Rank Variance

12-15 has a record 5-1 ... 83% ------------- Robert Morris 12
39-55 has a record 2-9 ... 22% ------------- Evansville 40
70-76 has a record 7-1 ... 88%
103-112 has a record 1-7 ... 12%
131-137 has a record 0-6 ... 0% ---------- Bryant 134
142-152 has a record 9-2 ... 78% -------- Dayton 152
169-196 has a record 18-2 ... 90% ------- Washington St 176 & Longwood 176
204-217 has a record 0-8 ... 0%
219-236 has a record 9-1 ... 90% -------- Providence 226, Miss St 227, LSU 227
243-274 has a record 9-3 ... 75% -------- Wake Forest 253
305+ has a record 1-8 ... 11% ----------- South Indiana 337

Rank Variance took a hit yesterday....3-8 record
Spread was fine at 6-2-1 ... 66%